Retail inflation in August nudged up, ending a nine-month slide. At 2.1 per cent it still sits well within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2–6 per cent band. There is little cause for alarm. Food inflation remains subdued in both town and country. Sharp falls in vegetables (down 15.9 per cent) and pulses (down 14.5 per cent) ease pressure on households. Combined with free foodgrains under the National Food Security Act, the result is affordable staples.

Other essentials—clothing and footwear, housing, fuel and light—also cooled further from July. The macro picture is the mirror of last year’s. Then, India faced slower growth and higher inflation; now it enjoys stronger growth with low inflation. The growth–inflation gap has widened from about 2.1 percentage points a year ago to roughly 5.5 today—a welcome buffer. Yes, questions about GDP and price data persist. They did last year too, so the comparison holds.

The outlook stays benign. Even if India bowed to American pressure and stopped buying Russian oil, the effect would be limited. Global crude is cheaper than in 2022; Russia’s discount matters less; switching costs would be modest.

Meanwhile, new GST rate cuts from 22 September should trim several prices and nudge inflation lower. Markets now expect the Monetary Policy Committee to cut rates at September’s meeting. That would be hasty. Global risks—from geopolitics to uneven disinflation elsewhere—argue for patience. Hold the line now; reassess after clearer data on GST pass-through, oil and core inflation. If the calm endures, December looks the likelier window for a cut. Policy should stay practical: keep food supply chains smooth, retain flexibility on fuel taxes, and preserve the RBI’s hard-won credibility. India has moved from fretting about prices to managing them. The task is to keep it that way.