An unhappy Nawaz Sharif quietly moves to London, perhaps, in a bid to avoid the repetition of a Kargil-like situation, when the then Army Chief, Parvez Musharraf had triggered war with India. Nawaz Sharif had to save the army’s embarrassing defeat by seeking Washington’s intervention. In spite of this, he was later dethroned by Musharraf, Pakistan army’s first Mohajir general, though he always undermined his roots in Azamgarh, a district in Uttar Pradesh.

Being once bitten and cheated by Musharraf, Newaz Sharif was keen that he should not again be seen supporting the war against India. In spite of his manipulative role against Newaz Sharif, the erstwhile army chief Qamar Jawed Bajwa had quietly made a peace-deal with India. It had prevented any large-scale border clash in the wake of New Delhi’s decision to end the special status to Jammu and Kashmir.

In London, since his arrival, Nawaz Sharif has deliberately been avoiding the media, while keeping an eye on the aftermath of the Pahalgam massacre. He, according to informed sources, has also disapproved of the anti-India rally held by a group of volunteers on 7 May believed to be close to the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Noon) in London.

It appears that his advice to superannuate peacefully to the Pakistani General, Asim Munir, has been rejected. It is also quite known that he was told at the time of his appointment that he would be quitting

his position without seeking extension. His term as the army chief is ending later this year. It appears that he has not only ignored the tacit understanding arrived at the time of his appointment, but has also unleashed the conflict with India.

Few were surprised in Pakistan that how could he really violate the understanding at with a powerful political party leader such as Newaz Sharif. In spite of ISI manipulations,Newaz Sharif’s PML-N, has emerged a powerful outfit. It appears that if Asim suffers a setback in the ongoing conflict with India, he would blame Shahbaz Sharif, the present prime minister and a nominee of his elder brother,Newaz.

 It may be recalled that Asim Munir could have been superseded by his junior, Faiz Hamid, a former ISI chief, or he might have superannuated if the then army chief Qamer Jawed Bajwa was given another extension, but it was the decision of Newaz not to give any extensions to Bajwa, and later he was elevated much against the wishes of the former ISI chief Faiz Hamid.

It is believed that Nawaz Sharif, a three times prime minister and convicted by the country’s Kangaroo courts, has repeatedly stated he was of the firm view  that in Pakistan like India,  the chiefs should not be seeking extensions. According to the insiders, the new policy was told to Asim even before he was being formally sworn-in.

However , during the past several  weeks Asim Munir was seen making political statements. His recent statement highlighting the Hindu -Muslim differences had cautioned a few seasoned political analysts in Islamabad as well as India that Asim Munir, perhaps , is aspiring for a much bigger role in Pakistan. It was soon followed by the ISI’s sponsored attack on unarmed tourists at Pahalgam.

It is to be seen whether he could be another incarnation of the army dictator, Zia-ul-Haq, who during his nearly a decade regime 1977 onwards had enforced Sharia laws. He had won the confidence of the US-led West by radicalization of Muslim youths to fight against the then USSR. Zia, earlier,  had successfully conspired to dethrone Z A Bhutto, and later got him hanged by conducting a sham judicial trial. It might be recalled that Bhutto, who had believed that Zia would be loyal to him for elevating him to the position of army chief, but  Zia ensured his elimination.

In the case of Asim Munir, however, he already was the senior most general. Sharif brothers saved him from being superseded, but his recent actions indicate that he would be more assertive in coming weeks.

Newaz Sharif’s decision to shift to London also indicates that he would not like to be seen repeating the mistake of endorsing the stupidity of General Pervez Musharraf, who had initiated Kargil war after the visit of the Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Islamabad. If Asim Munir wants power, let him have it and face the consequences of his choice. Newaz Sharif does want to be seen with the warmongers, according to Nawaz Sharif sources.

It is a catch -22 situation for the Pakistani army also, but it perhaps, refuses to learn from the novel of Helper, who says that the situation catch-22 indicates that the failure to resolve the dilemma created by the person himself finally hurts him. It is difficult to predict whether Asim Munir would be able to succeed like his predecessors or he would be facing the consequences his predecessors, Zia and Musharraf had faced.

Many believe that the Pahalgam massacre is the outcome of his recent anti -Hindu rhetoric. The government of India’s decision to launch “ operation Sindoor, also a big slap on the Pak army that it conspired to kill young grooms, who had been to the Pahalgam in the Kashmir valley.

India’ s  Tough Stand– New Delhi has already asked for the handing over of the culprits of the Mumbai attack.

It is stated that the message for peace is being communicated to Islamabad through the top diplomat from Saudi Arabia. The recent unannounced visit of Adel Alijubeir to New Delhi is the first indication that Pakistan’s friends in West Asia do not endorse it’s policy of supporting terrorism as an instrument of the state.Adel , who is a Minister of state , perhaps would soon be returning to Riad before his country’s policy is finally decided regarding the ongoing conflict.

It means that not much importance is being attached to the presence of Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. He was in New Delhi  to co-chair the 20th India-Iran Joint Commission Meeting.

The high-level dialogue comes as the two nations mark the 75th anniversary of the India-Iran Friendship Treaty.

The situation continues to be explosive, but much depends on the Pakistani generals.

Gopal Misra has been associated with national and international media. His books on journalism and geo-politics have been well-appreciated. Views are personal.