Prof Pradeep Mathur
Hardly any State Assembly election in recent years has seen such a bitter campaign in such bad taste as the just- concluded campaign in Bihar. However, besides the bad etiquette shown by our political leaders the greater disappointment has been the poor media coverage of the election campaign. There were hardly any media reports which had touch of investigative reporting in them thus reflecting the ground reality.
The media coverage of the election campaign looked like the PR outreach of the two coalitions each comprising two big parties and some splinter groups . Of course the rallies of big leaders like Prime Minister Modi his Home Minister Amit Shah, Maha Gath Bandhan CM face Tejaswi Yadav and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi were reported. But beyond this there was hardly anything which could indicate as to what was in the mind of voters and which way the wind was blowing.
Since there were hardly any ground reports to educate the election observers the assessment by political analysts was made on the basis of likely impact of announcement of doles like Rs 10,000 to women by the Nitish Kumar Government and promise of government jobs to each family by Tejaswi Yadav heading the alliance opposing him. The impact of the Rs 10,000 dole on the minds of women voters and the final result is difficult to gauge as women hardly take a political line different from the male members of the family. Then as veteran journalist Swaminathan Aiyer says the cash awards or raveries as these are now called hardly change voter behaviour.
Therefore, with polling of first round for 121 out of a total of 243 candidates done and the campaign for the second round over and hardly four days remaining for counting and outcome of the result no one is sure as to what the verdict would be and who will form the next government in Bihar next week. It would not be incorrect to say that this sense of uncertainty about the outcome is rather unprecedented.
However, we can always try to make an assessment of the situation . I am afraid the high hopes of the Maha Gath Bandhan leaders may be belied again and they may not succeed in their bid to come to power unless Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal United decide to cross over to them in the post-election scenario. In Indian politics it is difficult as to say as to what will happen the next day but as the situation stands now it looks unlikely.
An objective analysis of indications available suggests that RJD-Congress Maha Gath Bandan is unlikely to get an absolute majority of 122 plus seats and come to power in Bihar. Some people may say that the Maha Gath Bandhan’s failure could be because of the Election Commission’s partisan role. But let us not go by this. The fact is that despite all infirmities and poor health Nitish is respected for being an honest politician and is credited for better administration and some development work in the state. Then he has a loyal caste constituency of considerable strength that may help his JDU get a good number of seats and chief ministership in the future NDA government.
One crucial factor that may give good number of seats to BJP is big money investment the party has made in the election campaign. It has no popular face in Bihar and its two top leaders Deputy CMs Samrat Chaudhury and Vijay Kumar Sinha have been in such a tough fight that no one can say with any amount of certainty that they would win. However, a well-organised campaign backed up by considerable money power and supervised by Union Home Minister Amit Shah may pay good dividends to the party.
One crucial factor of Bihar election campaign that has neither been properly understood nor reported is the impact of Prashant Kishore and his Jan Swaraj Party on the electorate. Taking the level of campaign above caste and communal considerations Prashant Kumar talked of the honour of Bihar and its people. His portrayal of how the Biharis are seen, considered and treated in the top power circles in Delhi created an instant bond among people , especially the youth. Though the media did not report but the fact is that his public rallies were very well attended and he also succeeded in getting crowd funding for his campaign. To compare Prashant Kishore will leaders of other small parties in the fray like Chirag Paswan and Majhi will be a big mistake.
The electoral support Prashant Kishore gets will be at the cost of both the coalitions – the NDA and Maha Gath Bandhan. While his high caste background, rational stance and intellectual appeal will undercut the support base of the NDA , his progressive and secular stance can give him big support from the electorally crucial Muslim minority . It is widely believed that sore at their marginalisation in state politics Muslims are in a mood to vote in block and avoid any splitting of their votes. Muslim support to Prashant Kishore will be a big blow to Maha Gath Bandhan.
Though estimates vary as to how many seats Prashant Kishore will get but his intervention is most likely to lead to a hung assembly. Even if the Maha Gath Bandhan gets a majority but falls short of an absolute majority it will be difficult for it to come in power as such a verdict will eventually result in a NDA govt. because of BJP’s money and muscle power.
Therefore, let us sit with fingers crossed and wait as to what the results are.
( Veteran journalist and media Guru , Prof Pradeep Mathur is Editor-in-chief of Mediamap news network and Chairman of MBKM Foundation, a not-for-profit organisation for voluntary social work)
