CHANDIGARH: The unprecedented floods ravaging Punjab, one of India’s richest agricultural states, have plunged the Bhagwant Mann-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government into a political quagmire, threatening to erode the pro-farmer image it painstakingly built by obstructing Haryana’s water share from the Bhakra Nangal Dam.
As floodwaters have submerged nearly 1900 villages, displaced over 3.54 lakh people, and damaged crops across 4 lakh acres ahead of the harvest season, the crisis could prove a decisive blow to AAP’s prospects in the upcoming 2025 assembly elections.
Ground reports indicate growing resentment, with farmers and residents directly blaming the state government’s mismanagement of water resources-a narrative now bolstered by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) data suggesting that releasing water to Haryana could have mitigated the disaster. Moreover, the flood situation, described by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann as worse than the catastrophic 1988 deluge, has exposed the AAP’s contentious stance on water sharing.
As per the internal reports on April 23, 2025, a BBMB technical committee meeting deliberated the water availability for the depletion period beginning September 2024 to May 2025 and recommended releasing 8,500 cusecs of water to Haryana, including an additional 4,500 cusecs for eight days.
At that time, the Bhakra reservoir’s water level stood at 1,555 feet, with a storage of 1.3 billion cubic meters.
However, Mann’s government, citing Punjab’s “water rights,” resisted this move, deploying police to block releases and staging high-profile protests at the Nangal Dam. This decision has come under scrutiny as recent BBMB figures and meteorological data reveal that the refusal to lower reservoir levels exacerbated the flooding triggered by 74% above-normal rainfall in August.
Meanwhile, speaking anonymously, officials have vindicated the technical panel’s April call, noting that releasing the additional 4500 cusecs could have reduced the reservoir level by at least 25 feet, creating space to accommodate the monsoon inflows.
Even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecasted 105% of normal rainfall, a prediction the BBMB factored into its long-range forecast released on April 23.
Despite this, Mann’s administration labeled the release as a “robbery” of Punjab’s water, accusing the BJP-led Centre and Haryana of conspiring via the BBMB. The AAP even locked BBMB Chairman Manoj Tripathi in a guest house and deployed police to seize control of the Nangal Dam, actions that led to a Punjab and Haryana High Court order on May 7 restraining such interference.
But the Mann government was unaware that three months later, the consequences will be stark. As of early September, the Bhakra reservoir level has soared to 1,677 feet—mere three feet below the danger mark of 1,680 feet—following controlled releases of 65,000 cusecs and additional inflows from heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh.
The BBMB’s phased release strategy, initiated on August 19 with 45000 cusecs, was a reactive measure to manage the crisis, but critics argue it was too little, too late. “Had the April recommendation been heeded, the reservoir could have maintained safer levels, potentially sparing Punjab from the current inundation affecting all 23 districts”, said a senior official pleading anonymity.
Flood Brings Opportunity for Opposition
Even, the timing could not be worse for AAP, with assembly elections on the horizon. The crises gave much needed ammunition to the opposition against the AAP government. As Congress’s Partap Singh Bajwa and Shiromani Akali Dal’s Sukhbir Badal have seized the opportunity to lambast Mann.
Bajwa accused the AAP of ignoring IMD and BBMB warnings in April, prioritizing “political drama” over disaster preparedness.
The opposition also criticized the government’s failure to staff BBMB with Punjab engineers, noting that 55% of irrigation wing posts and 73% of power wing posts remain vacant, undermining effective water management.
Also Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has further stoked the fire, accusing Mann of “dirty politics” and highlighting that Haryana’s request for water was for drinking purposes, not irrigation—a claim supported by BBMB data showing Haryana’s allocation at 2.987 million acre-feet (MAF) against Punjab’s 5.512 MAF for the current cycle.
Saini’s government recently requested a reduction of 2,500 cusecs due to reduced demand from heavy rains, a move that underscores the inter-state water dispute’s complexity amid the flood crisis.
A Man-Made Tragedy?
Mann has termed the floods a “man-made tragedy,” pointing to the Centre’s refusal to permit river desilting, which he claims exacerbates flooding. However, this narrative is weakening as BBMB data and expert analyses suggest that the AAP’s obdurate stance on water sharing played a significant role.
The controlled releases from Bhakra and Pong dams—65,000 cusecs and 80,000 cusecs respectively—have contributed to downstream flooding, with the Sutlej and Beas rivers breaching embankments. Rescue operations by the Army and NDRF have saved thousands, but the damage to Punjab’s agrarian economy is incalculable, with losses estimated in the thousands of crores.
AAP’s Defense and the Road Ahead
In response, Mann has projected himself as a “saviour of Punjab’s waters,” using AI-generated videos to depict him closing dam gates against Haryana’s demands. Education Minister Harjot Singh Bains has echoed this, claiming the government thwarted BBMB’s “illegal” releases.
Yet, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan assuring support after a recent call, and the Centre yet to announce a comprehensive relief package, the AAP faces pressure to justify its actions. The special assembly session in May, where a resolution rejected additional water releases, now appears a hollow gesture as the state grapples with the fallout. As the floodwaters recede, the political tide may turn against AAP.
The BBMB’s technical foresight, backed by data, stands in stark contrast to the AAP’s populist posturing, leaving Mann’s government vulnerable to charges of mismanagement. With farmers’ livelihoods at stake and elections looming, the water fight that sparked in April may well drown AAP’s ambitions in Punjab’s political landscape. Besides, the general public, celebrities, politicians alongside teams from the Indian Army, BSF, NDRF, and state police, is working tirelessly to evacuate stranded individuals and reinforce riverbank bundhs. The figures revealed that to date, approximately 21000 people have been successfully relocated to safer areas.
