Take measures to save economy before it’s too late

As per the latest data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s GDP has expanded by 1.6% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, an acceleration from the 0.5% growth in the preceding three-month period, that marginally softened the extent of the full-year’s record contraction to 7.3%. The Centre had earlier projected full-year GDP to contract by 8%. There was a 3.7% growth in fourth-quarter gross value added, with all but two of the economy’s eight broad sectors posting expansions. Mining and quarrying and the worst-hit contact-intensive omnibus services category of trade, hotels, transport, communications and broadcasting contracted 5.7% and 2.3%, respectively. Still, the pandemic’s crushing impact over the preceding three quarters meant that only the agriculture, forestry and fishing and the utility services posted full-year growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption spending apparently rebounded to growth for the first time in four quarters, posting an expansion of 2.7% that moderated the full-year’s contraction to 9.1%. And gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for private investment, jumped 11% in the three-month period, most likely helped in fair measure by an increase in capital spending by the Government. The NSO data, however, must be seen in perspective. With the ground having shifted since March with the surge in Covid-19 infections, it is vital to correlate the figures with on-the-ground information. The fiscal 2020-21 provisional estimates for private consumption spending — the bulwark accounting for over 50% of GDP — highlighted the expenditure figure at Rs75.6-lakh crore, its weakest level in three years. Only an accelerated nationwide vaccine roll-out along with direct job and income boosting measures can prevent the economy from backsliding again. The government must act now. Else, it will be too late.

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